S&P 500 Composite Closing Price Fell Below 7-Week Lows by Robert W. Colby

Summary: S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,047.22) closing price fell below 7-week lows. Energy stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) has been bearish since peaking on 7/1/08 and fell below 8-week lows on 8/26/10. Financial stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell to a new 9-month…

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Stocks Broke a 4-Day Losing Streak by Robert W. Colby

Summary: Stocks broke a 4-day losing streak. But is it significant? Financial stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell to a new 9-month low on 8/25/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price fell to a new 12-month low on 8/25/10 and has been in a bearish trend since peaking on 4/15/10. Cru…

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Loss of Confidence Surrounding the US Fundamentals by Darrell Jobman

EUR/USD Risk appetite faltered in Asian trading on Wednesday and the Euro retreated back towards the 1.31 area against the dollar as confidence in the global economy deteriorated. The US trade deficit for June was sharply worse than expected with a 21-month high of US$49.9bn from a revised US$42…. Day Trader:..>>>   More »

Overnight Developments

• European stocks are weaker with the European Stoxx down -0.81% and Sep S&Ps down -2.90 points. The dollar and Treasuries are higher on increased safe-haven demand as stocks falter. European bank stocks are leading financial shares lower after Allied Irish Banks Plc, Ireland’s second-biggest bank, dropped 8.2% after its first-half loss widened as bad debts rose. Standard Chartered Plc fell 6.3% after Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc cut its recommendation on the bank to "hold" from "buy," citing weakness in capital-market related sales and pre-impairment profit that missed forecasts. Next Plc slid 7.4% and led retailers lower after Britain’s second-largest clothing retailer said consumer spending will be "more restrained" in the second half. Limiting losses in European stocks was the 4.0% jump in Electricite de France SA after the French government said that electricity prices would rise 3.4% starting Aug 15. Demand for dollars continues to weaken after the 3-month dollar Libor rate fell for the 16th consecutive session to a 2-3/4 month low of 0.424%.
• The Asian markets today closed mixed with Japan down -2.11%, Hong Kong +0.43%, China +0.37%, Taiwan +0.19%, Australia -0.65%, Singapore -0.43%, South Korea -0.10%, India +0.57%. Asian stocks were undercut after weaker-than-expected US economic data on home sales and factory orders renewed concerns about the strength of the global economy. Japanese exporters were pressured as the yen rose to an 8-month high against the dollar, which threatens to hurt the value of overseas sales when converted to the local currency. Canon, the world’s biggest maker of digital cameras, fell 4.3%, and Sony, which gets 22% of its sales from the US, slipped 3%. Toyota Motor dropped 1.6% and Honda Motor fell 2.2% after the companies posted declines in US auto sales last month of 3.2% and 2.0% respectively. The yield on Japanese 10-year government bonds fell below 1.00% for the first time in 7 years on speculation the strengthening yen will increase deflationary pressures.

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Overnight Developments

• European stocks are weaker with the European Stoxx down -0.81% and Sep S&Ps down -2.90 points. The dollar and Treasuries are higher on increased safe-haven demand as stocks falter. European bank stocks are leading financial shares lower after Allied Irish Banks Plc, Ireland’s second-biggest bank, dropped 8.2% after its first-half loss widened as bad debts rose. Standard Chartered Plc fell 6.3% after Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc cut its recommendation on the bank to "hold" from "buy," citing weakness in capital-market related sales and pre-impairment profit that missed forecasts. Next Plc slid 7.4% and led retailers lower after Britain’s second-largest clothing retailer said consumer spending will be "more restrained" in the second half. Limiting losses in European stocks was the 4.0% jump in Electricite de France SA after the French government said that electricity prices would rise 3.4% starting Aug 15. Demand for dollars continues to weaken after the 3-month dollar Libor rate fell for the 16th consecutive session to a 2-3/4 month low of 0.424%.
• The Asian markets today closed mixed with Japan down -2.11%, Hong Kong +0.43%, China +0.37%, Taiwan +0.19%, Australia -0.65%, Singapore -0.43%, South Korea -0.10%, India +0.57%. Asian stocks were undercut after weaker-than-expected US economic data on home sales and factory orders renewed concerns about the strength of the global economy. Japanese exporters were pressured as the yen rose to an 8-month high against the dollar, which threatens to hurt the value of overseas sales when converted to the local currency. Canon, the world’s biggest maker of digital cameras, fell 4.3%, and Sony, which gets 22% of its sales from the US, slipped 3%. Toyota Motor dropped 1.6% and Honda Motor fell 2.2% after the companies posted declines in US auto sales last month of 3.2% and 2.0% respectively. The yield on Japanese 10-year government bonds fell below 1.00% for the first time in 7 years on speculation the strengthening yen will increase deflationary pressures.

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Overnight Developments

• European stocks are trading mildly lower with the European Stoxx 50 down -0.28%. Sep S&Ps are down 4.80 points (-0.44%). S&Ps are on edge ahead of this morning’s Q2 GDP report (expected +2.6%). There is also some caution ahead of Sunday’s expected release of China’s purchasing managers index due to talk of a sharply weaker figure. The market consensus is for a moderate 0.7 point decline to 51.4 from 52.1 in June. The Eurozone July CPI rose to a 20-month high of +1.7% y/y from +1.4% y/y in June, which was in line with market expectations. However, the core CPI rose to only +0.9% y/y from +0.8% y/y in June. Meanwhile, the Eurozone June unmeployment rate remained at 10%, the highest level in almost 12 years. The IMF said today that US banks may need as much as $76 billion more in capital. A senior executive from Moody’s said that Spain, already on review for a possible downgrade, will probably lose its Aaa rating. Spain has already lost its triple-A ra ting from S&P and Fitch. The Moody’s executive also said that the U.S. needs a "clear plan" for tackling its deficit.
• The Asian markets today closed lower across the board: Japan -1.64%, Hong Kong -0.30%, China -0.32%, Taiwan -0.49%, Australia -0.68%, Singapore -0.33%, South Korea -0.83%, Bombay -0.69%. Asian markets were undercut by the report that Japan’s June unemployment rate rose to a 7-month high of 5.3%, which was higher than the consensus of 5.2%. In addition, Japan’s factory output fell 1.5% m/m versus the consensus for a +0.2% rise.

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Overnight Developments

• European stocks are higher with the European Stoxx 50 up 0.55% after hitting a 3-month high. Sep S&Ps are up 5.70 points (+0.52%). European stocks received support from positive earnings reports from AstraZeneca and Volkswagen and from positive confidence and employment reports. The European Commission’s business and consumer confidence index rose to a 2-1/3 year high of 101.3 from 99 in June. Meanwhile, Germany unemployment fell by 20,000 to 3.21 million, which was the lowest level in 1-1/2 years and was the 13th consecutive monthly decline. The Germany unemployment rate fell to 7.6% from 7.7%. French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde today said she expects a "serious pickup" in global growth in 2011, "if only because global trade has significantly improved." UBS upgraded European stocks to "neutral" from "underweight," cut U.S. stocks to "neutral," and cut Japanese stocks to "underweight."
• The Asian markets today closed mixed: Japan -0.59%, Hong Kong +0.01%, China +0.50%, Taiwan +0.18%, Australia -0.13%, Singapore +0.41%, South Korea -0.17%, Bombay +0.19%. Asian stocks were undercut by Wednesday’s U.S. Beige Book report, which suggested lackluster U.S. demand for Asian exports. Panasonic fell 7.7% today after news that the company would offer stock to help it purchase full control of its Sanyo Electric and Panasonic Electric Works units.

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Annual increase in Euro-zone money supply for the first time since January by Darrell Jobman

EUR/USD The Euro maintained a robust tone in early Europe on Tuesday and pushed to challenge resistance levels above 1.30 against the dollar. The European economic data again provided support with German consumer confidence rising to 3.9 in the latest month from a revised 3.6 for June, maintainin…

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Overnight Developments

• European stocks this morning are trading with solid gains with the European Stoxx 50 up 1.04%. Sep S&Ps are up 6.20 points (+0.56%). European stocks have been boosted by the continued decline in bank risk and a sharp 9% rally in UBS due to a favorable earnings report. The Markit iTraxx Financial Index of credit default swaps for 25 banks and insurers fell for the 6th day by 6.5 bp to hit a 3-month low of 111 bp. Deutsche Bank rallied by 3.5% after also reporting stronger than expected earnings today. The European stock markets were also encouraged by the fact that Hungary was able to sell $228 million in 3-month T-bills despite the recent financial turmoil in Hungary and the forint rallied by 0.8%. In another favorable US earnings report, Du Pont reported Q2 EPS of $1.17 that was well above the analyst consensus of 94 cents and raised its full-year 2010 EPS guidance to $2.90-$3.05 from $2.50-$2.70.
• The Asian markets today closed mixed: Japan -0.07%, Hong Kong +0.64%, China -0.55%, Taiwan -0.51%, Australia +0.25%, Singapore +0.42%, South Korea +0.03%, Bombay +0.32%. India’s central bank today raised its reverse repo rate by 50 bp to 4.50% and its repo rate by 25 bp to 5.75% in order to address inflation concerns. The central bank raised its India GDP forecast to 8.5% from 8.0% and its wholesale price inflation forecast to 6.0% from 5.5% for the year through March.

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Overnight Developments

• Global stocks are higher with the European Euro Stoxx 50 Index up +0.30% and Sep S&Ps up +6.00 points. The dollar and Treasuries are weaker and commodities strengthened, with copper at a 2-1/4 month high and crude oil at a 3-1/2 week high. The euro rose against the dollar after German business confidence unexpectedly surged in July as exports climbed and economic growth accelerated. The Jul German IFO business climate index surged +4.4 points to a 3-year high of 106.2. Further boosting European stocks was the larger-than-expected expansion of the UK economy in the second quarter as Q2 UK GDP grew +1.1% q/q, nearly twice more than expected and the fastest rate of expansion in 4 years, with a rebound in services, manufacturing and construction igniting the recovery. On the negative side, Jun French consumer spending unexpectedly declined -1.4% m/m and -1.9% y/y and Moody’s Investors Service said it would review Hungary’s debt rating for possible downgrade. Ericsson AB, the world’s largest maker of wireless phone networks, slumped over 4% after it reported Q2 net income of 1.88 billion kroner ($260 million), well below analysts’ estimates of 3.12 billion kroner as phone companies spent less on telecommunications infrastructure. The markets will be eagerly awaiting the results from the European Union’s stress tests on banks that will be released later today. According to a document from the Committee of European Banking Supervisors, regulators are scrutinizing banks to assess if they have enough capital, defined as a Tier 1 ratio of at least 6%, to withstand a recession and sovereign-debt crisis.
• The Asian markets today closed higher with Japan up +2.28%, Hong Kong +1.10%, China +0.42%, Taiwan +1.24%, Ausrtalia +1.91%, Singapore +0.60%, South Korea +1.45%, India +0.10%. Asian technology stocks gained after Microsoft reported its biggest sales gain in 2-1/2 years, while mining companies and raw material producers closed higher after copper rallied to a 2-1/4 month high. The yen weakened against the dollar, which boosted most Japanese exporters, after policy makers signaled for the third straight day that a stronger yen poses a danger to growth. Cabinet Office official Tsumura said the yen, which had risen 9% since May, has been "a bit too high," while Macquarie Research said Japanese authorities are "close" to intervening in the currency market, and that the BOJ may pump additional funds into the financial system.

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