Overnight Developments

• Global stocks are mostly higher with the European Euro Stoxx 50 Index up +0.57% and June S&Ps up +12.20 points. The dollar and Treasuries are weaker and commodity prices rose after economic reports from Asia show accelerating growth. China’s exports in May jumped by the most in 6 years, while Q1 Japan GDP was unexpectedly revised higher. Daimler AG climbed 4% after forecasting Mercedes-Benz sales will advance at twice the rate of the overall market on demand from China, while Lafarge SA, the world’s biggest cement maker, gained 4.3% after Citigroup recommended buying the shares. Overnight deposits at the ECB rose to a record 369 billion euros ($444 billion) today, the most since the start of the euro currency in 1999, as an increase in counterparty risks prompts European banks to deposit their excess funds with the ECB’s overnight deposit facility rather than lend. As expected, the Bank of England maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.50% and held its asset purchase target at 200 billion pounds.
• The Asian markets today closed mostly higher with Japan up +1.10%, Hong Kong +0.06%, China -1.15%, Taiwan +1.56%, Australia +1.14%, Singapore +1.23%, South Korea +0.22%, India +1.59%. Japanese stocks closed higher after Japan’s Q1 GDP was unexpectedly revised up to a 5.0% annualized rate from 4.9%, driven by exports and an upward revision to consumer spending (+0.4% q/q from the previously reported +0.3% q/q). In a separate report, May Japan CGPI rose +0.4% y/y, the first increase in producer prices in 17 months, which may ease deflation concerns as an increase in raw-material costs fueled price gains. Aussie stocks closed higher after Australia’s jobless rate declined -0.2 to a 16-month low of 5.2% in May when employers added 26,900 to payrolls, more than market expectations of 20,000. China’s May exports rose +48.5% y/y, the biggest gain in more than six years, which indicates the European debt crisis has yet to slow the world’s fastest-growing major economy. Desp ite the strong export figure, China’s Shanghai Stock Index closed lower after China’s property prices jumped +12.4% y/y in May, the second-fastest pace on record, which raises concern the government will step up tightening measures to cool the property market.

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Overnight Developments

• Global stocks are mixed with the European Euro Stoxx 50 Index up +0.56% and June S&Ps up +3.20 points. The dollar and Treasuries are weaker after comments last night from Kansas City Fed President Hoenig who said that the US economy is in a sustained recovery, and he repeated his call to raise the Fed funds rate to 1.00% by the end of Sep. Hoenig warned that "monetary policy can cause asset-price bubbles and that we need to take out the excess stimulus." He also said that the US has a "very serious fiscal situation" and that "we need to pass a law that is very firm that says you cannot spend more unless you cut something else." European technology stocks are leading a slight rally in equities today led by a 2.3% gain in STMicroelectronics which rallied after it was rated a "buy" in new coverage at Jeffries Group. IMF Deputy Managing Director Shinohara said most advanced economies are experiencing a "subdued" recovery and risks to the global economic outlook have "risen significantly" and policy makers have limited room to provide support to growth. European banks still remain wary of counterparty risk as they refuse to lend and rather deposit their excess funds with the ECB. Banks lodged 364.6 billion euros ($436 billion) in the ECB’s overnight deposit facility yesterday, the most since the euro’s inception in 1999, with deposits close to or above 300 billion euros for the past 9 sessions.
• The Asian markets today closed mixed with Japan down -1.04%, Hong Kong +0.69%, China +3.07%, Taiwan -1.12%, Australia +0.09%, Singapore -0.03%, South Korea -0.38%, India +0.25%. China’s Shanghai Stock Index closed higher after Reuters reported a surge in the nation’s exports and higher-than-expected new loans in May, signaling Europe’s debt crisis hasn’t derailed the economy. Chinese banks and property developers gained as new loans in May totaled 630 billion yuan ($92.3 billion), exceeding market expectations by 5%, while exporters rallied after May China exports surged +50% y/y. Tempering the rally in Chinese stocks was the +3.1% y/y increase in May consumer prices, which is above the PBOC’s targeted full-year ceiling of 3.0%, and adds to risks of overheating the economy. Japanese stocks closed lower led by losses in exporters, as the yen neared an 8-year high against the euro, raising concern a stronger yen will hurt the value of repatriated overseas earnings.

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Overnight Developments

• Global stocks are mixed with the European Euro Stoxx 50 Index down -1.14% and June S&Ps up +4.30 points. The dollar is little changed while the price of gold climbed to a record after Fitch Ratings said Britain’s deficit challenge is "formidable," adding to concerns that the European sovereign-debt crisis is spreading. Fitch said the UK is lagging behind other European nations in publishing deficit-reduction plans as investor concerns over government debt loads increase and that British Prime Minister Cameron needs to accelerate budget-deficit cuts to protect the nation’s top credit rating. Most German utility companies weakened, led by 3% declines in E.ON AG and RWE AG, after the German government signaled it will raise new taxes on the nuclear power industry to increase government revenue. The yield on German 10-year bunds declined to a record low of 2.50% on increased safe-haven demand due to sagging equity markets and funding concerns, with the yield spread between Spanish 10-year government bonds and German bunds widening to 213 bp, a level not seen since before the introduction of the euro in 1999. On the positive side, April German industrial production rose a more-than-expected +0.9% m/m as a weaker euro boosted export demand and local companies stepped up spending.
• The Asian markets today closed mostly higher with Japan up +0.18%, Hong Kong +0.56%, China +0.13%, Taiwan -0.08%, Australia +1.28%, Singapore -0.19%, South Korea +0.79%, India -0.98%. Asian stocks rose for the first time in 3 days after comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke last night that the US recovery is moving at a "moderate" pace. Asian exporters that have exposure to the US gained after the Fed Chairman’s comments eased concern that the US economy may slow. Asian raw material and commodity producers gained amid speculation global growth will revive metals demand while gold producers strengthened after the price of gold climbed to a record. Zhang Liqun, a researcher at China’s State Council Development and Research Center said that Chinese economic growth may slip to between 10% and 11% this quarter as industrial production and investment expand at a slower pace, and that "the 11.9% growth rate in Q1 won’t be sustained and the outlook for investmen t and export growth is uncertain." China is maintaining stimulus measures as Europe’s efforts to rein in its fiscal deficits slow the economy and threatens demand for its exports.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• June S&Ps this morning are trading up +4.30 points. The US stock market yesterday fluctuated on either side of unchanged into early afternoon when it plunged into the close and finished on its low (Dow Jones -1.16%, S&P 500 -1.35%, Nasdaq Composite -2.04%). The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all dropped to 1-1/2 week lows. Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from a slump in European equity markets after a weekend meeting of the Group of 20 finance chiefs failed to agree on steps to ensure the economic recovery will strengthen and the post meeting statement in which the G-20 finance ministers said that the global economic rebound faces "significant challenges," (2) weakness in financial stocks after the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission subpoenaed Goldman Sachs for not complying with requests for documents in the financial-crisis probe, (3) weakness in raw materials and commodity producers after copper prices plunged to an 8- month low on concern that slowing global economic growth will curb demand for industrial metals and other commodities, (4) the action by Daiwa Capital Markets to cut its GDP growth estimate for the US for the second half of this year to annualized growth of between 2.25% to 2.5%, down from a previous forecast of 3.0%, as the sovereign-debt crisis in Europe, fading government support and persistently high joblessness will weigh on expansion in the second half of the year, and (5) comments from Fed Vice Chairman appointee Yellen who said that while there appear to be improvements in the global economy, "significant headwinds to stability remain."
• Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected increase in Apr German factory orders, which eased concern that the European debt crisis was derailing the economic recovery, (2) the action by a Hungarian government official to tone down comments about his country potentially defaulting on its debt, (3) the prediction from Blackstone Group LP that with the options market showing confidence in stocks falling to a record low, it signals that now is the time to buy equities, and (4) the unexpected increase in Apr consumer credit which rose for the first time in 3 months (+$1.0 billion versus expectations of -$1.0 billion).

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Overnight Developments

• Global stocks are mostly higher with the European Euro Stoxx 50 Index up +1.78% and June S&Ps up +3.80 points. The dollar is little changed, Treasuries are weaker and most commodities are higher on increased economic optimism. European stocks received a boost after the May Euro-Zone PMI composite was unexpectedly revised up to 56.4 from the originally reported 56.2. Automakers gained, led by a 5.5% jump in Peugeot, after Deutsche Bank AG raised its recommendation on Europe’s second-largest carmaker to "buy" from "hold," and Daimler AG rose 2.5% after its Mercedes Benz division reported a 23% gain in US sales in May. Air France-KLM Group jumped 4.8% after Europe’s biggest airline said passenger traffic rose 4.3% in May. Limiting stock gains was the unexpected decline in Apr Euro-Zone retail sales which fell -1.2% m/m, the biggest drop in 1-1/2 years and weaker than market expectations for a +0.1% m/m increase. European banks are parking c ash with the ECB amid concern that a 750 billion-euro European rescue package may not be enough to stop the crisis from spreading and spilling into the banking industry. Overnight deposits with the ECB rose to a record 320.4 billion euros ($394 billion) and deposits have exceeded 300 billion euros for the past five days as the sovereign debt crisis makes banks wary of lending to each other.
• The Asian markets today closed mostly higher with Japan up +3.24%, Hong Kong +1.62%, China -0.78%, Taiwan +2.29%, Australia +2.40%, Singapore +2.42%, South Korea +2.14%,India +1.68%. Japanese businesses cut spending for the 12th consecutive quarter after Q1 capital spending excluding software fell -12.9% y/y. The much larger than expected decrease in capital spending will lead the government to downgrade Japan’s Q1 GDP figures later this month. Japanese exporters closed higher as the yen slumped to a 2-week low against the dollar and Asian carmakers gained on increased US sales. Nissan Motor closed 4.8% higher after reporting a +24% y/y increase in US car sales in May, Toyota rose 3.6% after posting a 5.7% sales gain and Kia Motors advanced 3.2% after its US sales rose 21% last month. The South Korean won rose sharply after JPMorgan Chase raised the nation’s equities to "overweight" and said the won is one of the "most undervalued" emerging-marke t currencies.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• June S&Ps this morning are trading up +3.80 points. The US stock market yesterday opened higher and maintained a positive tone throughout the day as it trended higher into the close and finished on its high (Dow Jones +2.25%, S&P 500 +2.58%, Nasdaq Composite +2.64%). Bullish factors included (1) a rally in homebuilders after the stronger-than-expected Apr US pending home sales (+6.0% m/m and +24,6% y/y versus expectations of +5.0% m/m and +21.0% y/y), (2) a rally in energy producers and oil service providers after crude oil rose, (3) strength in airline stocks after Continental airlines beat monthly estimates for monthly unit revenue, which signals a stronger return of business travelers who pay higher fares, and (4) the prediction from MFS Investment Management that "the US is in the middle of a V-shaped economic recovery and that the European bank crisis does not have the scale and scope of Lehman and AIG and it doesn’t have the ingredients to bring down the banking system."
• Bearish factors included (1) the slump in the MBA’s home purchase index to its lowest level since Apr 1997, which indicates future US housing sales may be weak as the expiration of government tax incentives to purchase homes by the end of April has led to a reduction in home sales since then, and (2) carry-over weakness from a slump in European stocks on concern the region’s sovereign debt contagion is spreading after the yield premium between Spanish 10-year government bonds and 10-year German bunds widened to a 13-year high of 177 bp.
• Alcoa (AA) rose 1.6% in European trading after the company was upgraded to "outperform" from "neutral" at Macquarie Group Ltd.
• Las Vegas Sands (LVS) climbed 2.6% in pre-market trading after Morgan Stanley raised its recommendation on the casino company to "overweight" from equal weight."

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