This stock market seems to have an illness called schizophrenia. In late September, the major stock indexes declined lower, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by over 1000.0 points only to recapture all of those declines in 15 trading days in the month of October. Ten percent rallies and declines are becoming normal trading ranges these days. In the past, the stock markets would rally higher or lower by ten percent in a year. These are certainly not normal times.

What causes these large wide range stock market swings? Well, there are several things that can affect markets, however, the main catalyst is currency. The major stock markets seem to be moving on the back of currency intervention, mainly the U.S. Dollar. As you all know, the U.S. Dollar is the world’s reserve currency, therefore, most every commodity must be purchased with U.S. Dollars. If you have ever traveled to Asia you may have noticed that most businesses will take the U.S. Dollar for payment before they take their own currency. This tells us that the strength of the U.S. Dollar is what is moving the stock markets around the world.

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Recently, the leading commodity stocks have bounced higher as the U.S. Dollar Index sold off. This morning, the U.S. Dollar Index is trading higher and just about every leading commodity stock is selling off today. The only commodity that is not declining lower today is WTI oil, traders must remember that oil can be affected by weather. Currently there is a hurricane that is developing in the Caribbean Sea and is expected to reach the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week. This is certainly part of the catalyst for higher oil.

The news out of the European Union is simply one of the most bizarre scenarios that we have ever seen in our life times. Traders cannot follow all of the news that comes out of that region regarding the European bank bailout. Therefore, traders should simply watch the U.S. Dollar Index(DXY). When the DXY rallies the major stock indexes will decline and deflate lower. The opposite is true when the DXY sells off or pulls back, the major stock indexes will inflate and trade higher. Traders should continue to expect these schizophrenic markets going forward. The only beacon of light that we have as a trader to navigate us through these turbulent markets is going to be to follow the U.S. Dollar Index.

Nicholas Santiago InTheMoneyStocks.com

Schizophrenic Market Nicholas Santiago started trading in 1991. In 1997, he became a licensed Series 7 and 63 registered representative. He managed money for a large, affluent private client group. After applying his knowledge to his client base, he decided it was time to begin teaching those interested in learning his methods. He is an expert in Technical Analysis. He has become an accomplished technician in the studies of Elliot Wave, Gann Theory, Dow Theory and Cycle Theory. In 2007, he partnered with Gareth Soloway to form InTheMoneyStocks.Com and realize his dream of educating others about the truth of the markets. Article Source

The Dow pushed up through the 618% at 10,165/72 therefore that took out the Elliott wave structure downwards for the time being, but it has not taken out the terminal high of 10,408, indeed technically the Elliott count down is still in play, this is major to realize ahead jumping the gun and exiting or going long, the news that pushed the market overnight will be disregarded tomorrow.

Firstly, we need to see if resistance becomes support at 10,300, there are markets on their supports in Australia mainly, the Materials sector, as it is above the MediumLevel 11,500, in line with US BHP above 65 and local BHP above 38, the banks on the other hand are not supported they are facing resistance, the Dow is on 10,000 which is support, we have been anticipating a break there, the same with the XJO on 4300 support (Group1)

Gold is not on sustained, sure it has rallied and might shatter from 1200 or push to 1230 if the Dow pushes to 10600, however for now it is under 1200.

Forex, the AUD will push higher leading stock, whenever the DXY breaks done 82, it places it into a bigger bearish picture toward 80 and the Euro above 1.30 this would change the wave counts there, it hasn’t occurred as yet and we require seeing this played out

It would be tempting to chase the resource today, if so keep it tight and understand Copper is creating the first high above the level TL3 and will retest it, so expect a likely pull back and crude touching on 80 will meet with a reaction, I saying don’t get trapped, play a shorter time frame.

The ASX200 XJO is finding support at 4400 however it starts running into supply and resistance at 4500, the 618% retrenchment is around 4700 and the 50% retrenchment at 4600, so there is resistance all above 4500, so whatever happens at 4500 will set the scene for the next trend. There are a variety of things that can happen, firstly, it is likely to react to some degree, either failing at this level or gathering itself after the reaction and climbing above creating the first high above the level then retesting the level for support, but normally the first high above the level is the top of the last trend, so from here a larger pattern would unfold across 4500, eventually finding support if this is the case we would be trading long from here, the other point on the local markets is that stocks are current oversold and without the fear of the US to hold then down they will move up quickly, so we also need a trading plan for that.

In a nutshell the resistances for the Dow at 10,500 and the ASX200 at 4500 are the key points for the week ahead. Whenever these levels become support then we can await higher moves, these events when they come will take time to evolve we will be discussing the finer details of this possible ness if it unfolds.

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