The Dow Jones industrial average rose 47 points in very light trading. It was the seventh day of gains out of the past eight for the index. Treasury prices eased as traders became more willing to take on risk.  Stocks have shaken off the doldrums of August and marched steadily higher in September thanks to a series of encouraging signals on the economy. The latest came Friday morning with a report that wholesale inventories shot up in July, a sign of confidence that retail sales will pick up.

“It’s becoming more evident that confidence by consumers and the labor market is improving,” said Tim Speiss, chairman of EisnerAmper’s Personal Wealth Advisors practice. “It’s tepid; It’s weak; But it’s progress.” The energy sector got a lift from a jump in oil prices. Oil climbed about 2 percent after a pipeline that delivers oil to Midwest refineries was shut down. Oil companies like Chevron Corp. and Schlumberger rose on the news. The market‘s September rally has paused only once so far, when concerns resurfaced about European banks. European markets fluctuated Friday after a report that German banking giant Deutsche Bank is considering raising new cash through a stock sale.

Many of the recent improvements in economic indicators have been incremental, but given the deep pessimism about the economy that had set in during August even faint glimmers of hope on the job market and other parts of the economy like trade have been enough to please investors.  “There’s been so much negativity that it doesn’t take much in terms of data beating expectations to propel the market,” said Hank Smith, chief investment officer at Haverford Investments.

The Dow rose 47.53, or 0.5 percent, to close at 10,462.77.  Broader indexes also rose. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 5.37, or 0.5 percent, to 1,109.55, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 6.28, or 0.3 percent, to 2,242.48.  About two stocks rose for every one that fell on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume was extremely low at 755 million shares.

Even with their recent gains, most indexes had only modest advances for the week because of a downturn on Tuesday because of the worries about European banks. The Dow is up 0.1 percent for the week, the S&P is up 0.5 percent, and the Nasdaq is up 0.4 percent.  Bond prices dipped. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 2.80 percent from 2.76 percent late Thursday. Its yield is used to help set interest rates on mortgages and other consumer loans.

Oil rose $2.20, or 3 percent, to $76.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Chevron rose $1.46 to $78.82, while Schlumberger Ltd. rose 78 cents to $59.31.

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Overnight Developments

• European stocks are little changed with the European DJ Stoxx 50 up +0.03% and Sep S&Ps are up +3.50 points. The market‘s attention is focused on speeches later today from Fed Chairman Bernanke and ECB President Trichet from the Fed’s annual symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Losses in European banks are undercutting European stock prices today with Banca Papolare di Milano down 5% after the Italian bank reported Q2 net income of 20.1 million euros, lower than analysts’ estimates of 41.6 million-euros, and Credit Suisse Group AG predicted that earnings estimates for 2010-12 will likely be revised down by 10 to 15% following the bank’s “very weak set of results.” Commerzbank AG slumped 2.6% after Handelsbatt said the bank plans to sell new shares as early as next month to pave the way for an exit by the German government. Limiting losses in European markets was the upward revision to Q2 UK GDP figures to +1.2% q/q and +1.7% y/y, higher than the initi al estimate of +1.1% q/q and +1.6% y/y, and shows the British economy expanding by its biggest amount since 2001.
• The Asian markets today closed mostly higher with Japan up +0.95%, Hong Kong -0.07%, China +0.30%, Taiwan +0.43%, Australia +0.32%, Singapore +0.44%, South Korea +0.06%, India -1.25%. Japanese stocks closed higher and the yen weakened against the dollar after Japanese Prime Minister Kan said the government is ready to take “bold” action in the currency market to stem the yen’s advance. Kan said he expects the BOJ to implement monetary policy “swiftly,” and that he plans on meeting with BOJ governor Shirakawa soon after he returns from the US. July Japan consumer prices excluding fresh food fell -1.1% y/y, their 17th consecutive monthly decline, while July Japan overall household spending rose +1.1% y/y, lower than expectations for a +1.5% y/y increase, and signals that Japan’s economic recovery may be faltering. On the bright side, Japan added 210,000 jobs in July from a month earlier, the most since Jan, while the unemployment dropped -0.1 to 5.2% , its first decline in 6 months as the job-to-applicant ratio rose to 0.53, meaning there are 53 job openings for every 100 job candidates, the most since March 2009.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• Sep S&Ps this morning are up +3.50 points. The stock market yesterday fluctuated on both sides of unchanged until early afternoon when it ailed off into the close and finsihed just above its low (Dow -0.74%, S&P 500 -0.77%, Nasdaq Composite -1.07%). Bearish factors included (1) renewed concerns over Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis after El Economista reported that a Spanish court ruled Spain’s method of auditing sales tax was illegal and voided 5.1 billion euros ($6.48 billion) in value-added taxes collected in past years, which fuels concern about Spain’s fiscal stability, (2) concerns the US economic recovery is continuing to weaken after the Kansas City Fed said that manufacturing in its area slowed in Aug, with no companies reporting m/m increases, and (3) the prediction from Societe Generale that stocks are headed for their third bear market since 2000 as the global economy contracts and because “there is still too much hope” among investors t o suggest that stock prices will hit bottom any time soon.
• Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in weekly initial unemployment claims (-31,000 to 473,000 versus expectations of -10,000 to 490,000), (2) strength in raw materials and energy producers after a weak dollar prompted an advance in the prices of most commodities, and (3) the prediction from Kansas City Fed President Hoenig who said that he still expects the US economy to expand by about 3% this year, in line with his forecast from a month ago.
• J. Crew Group (JCG) fell 6.5% in pre-market trading after the clothing retailer cut its full-year earnings forecast to $2.35 a share at most, lower than a previous forecast of as much as $2.45.
• Omnivision Technologies (OVTI) dropped 4.1% in pre-market trading after the company reported Q1 sales of $193.1 million, below analysts’ extimates of $204.1 million.

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Overnight Developments

• Global stocks are mixed with the European Euro Stoxx 50 Index up +0.92% and Sep S&Ps down -1.30 points. European stocks gained and the euro strengthened to a 1-3/4 month high on speculation stress tests on European banks will show narrower losses than estimated. European bank stocks led financial shares higher after Credit Suisse Group AG raised their recommendation for lenders to "benchmark," saying European sovereign-debt risk is overstated, the financial industry is undervalued and the European Union stress tests "may be a positive catalyst." Stocks and most commodities also received a boost after the IMF raised its estimate for global economic growth. The IMF now estimates the world economy will expand 4.6% this year; the biggest increase since 2007, from an April forecast of 4.2% after a stronger-than-expected first half. The IMF warned however, "recent turbulence in financial markets, reflecting a drop in confidence about fisca l sustainability, policy responses, and future growth prospects, has cast a cloud over the outlook." As expected, the BOE kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.50% and kept its asset purchase target unchanged at 200 billion pounds.
• The Asian markets today closed mostly higher with Japan up +2.76%, Hong Kong +0.97%, China -0.18%, Taiwan +0.99%, Australia +2.40%, Singapore +1.26%, South Korea +1.53%, India +1.03%. Japanese exporters rallied as the yen fell against the dollar and after the ICSC said that US retail sales in June grew at the fastest pace in 4 years, easing concern that growth in the world’s biggest economy is faltering. NEC Corp., Japan’s largest personal computer maker, led gains in Asian technology stocks after it jumped 2.6% when it said it aims to double its share of the world’s supercomputer market in the next 4 years. Australian job growth in Jun rose a more-than-expected 45,900, boosting stocks and the Australian dollar, and heightening odds that the RBA will have to resume raising interest rates. Australia’s jobless rate held steady in June at 5.1%, marking the first time it’s below Japan’s jobless rate since at least 1978. China’s Shanghai Stock Index closed lower, led by industrial companies and energy producers, as concern the government will step up tightening measures overshadowed rising earnings. Energy producers were undercut after the government said it would extend a resource tax to the entire nation, while industrial companies weakened after UBS AG said that China will "intensify" enforcement on land policies.

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Overnight Developments

• Global stocks are mixed with the European Euro Stoxx 50 Index up +0.64% and Sep S&Ps up +7.40 points. The dollar and Treasuries are weaker and most commodities are higher as the euro strengthened after ECB figures suggested reduced funding pressure for European banks. The ECB said it would lend banks 131.9 billion euros ($161.5 billion) for 3 months, less than some market estimates of 250 to 300 billion euros. Banks on July 1 need to repay 442 billion euros in 12-month funds, the biggest amount ever awarded by the ECB, and a main cog in its extraordinary liquidity measures designed to fight the financial crisis last year. The weaker-than-expected demand suggests that funding pressures for European banks aren’t as bad as originally feared and helped push the euro higher and send European bank stocks soaring. AstraZeneca Plc, the UK’s second-biggest drug maker, climbed 9.7% after winning a US court ruling that will help prevent the sale of generic copies of it s cholesterol medicine Crestor until 2016, while Portugal Telecom SGPS SA jumped 5.8% after Telefonica SA increased its offer for the Portuguese company’s stake in Brazil’s largest mobile-phone operator.
• The Asian markets today closed mostly lower with Japan down -1.96%, Hong Kong -0.59%, China -1.12%, Taiwan -1.27%, Australia -1.02%, Singapore +0.18%, South Korea -0.76%, India +0.95%. Most Asian stock markets declined, with Chinese stocks falling to a 14-month low, as Asian markets play catch up to yesterday’s global equity market rout that was extended by weaker-than-expected US Jun consumer confidence that’s spurring concern about a slowdown in US economic growth. Most Asian exporters closed lower on concerns demand will weaken for their goods if the US economy slows and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index tumbled to a 7-month low after Japan’s wages unexpectedly declined in May. May Japan labor cash earnings dropped -0.2% y/y when the market was expecting a +0.8% y/y increase, eroding prospects for acceleration in domestic demand and deepening concern that the global economic recovery will slow.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• Sep S&Ps this morning are trading up +7.40 points. The US stock market yesterday opened lower and continued lower throughout the day and finished with sharp losses (Dow Jones -2.65%, S&P 500 -3.10%, Nasdaq Composite -3.85%). The S&P 500 plunged to a 7-3/4 month low, the Dow Jones fell to 3-week lows while the Nasdaq slid to a 1-3/4 month low. Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from a plunge in Asian and European stock markets as industrial and commodity stocks declined on concern that China’s economy is weakening after the Conference Board revised down its April gauge for the outlook of China’s economy to indicate slower growth, (2) the larger-than-expected decline in Jun US consumer confidence (-9.8 to 52.9 versus expectations of -0.8 to 62.5), (3) weakness in bank stocks led by a plunge in JPMorgan Chase after Moody’s Investors Service said JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo may lose $1.38 billion in annual revenue from the proposed cap on credit-card swipe fees being considered by Congress, and (4) concerns over the health of European banks after the 3-month Euribor rate rose to an 8-month high of 0.688%, signaling a lack of trust between lenders, along with concerns that European banks must refinance $540 billion in 1-year ECB loans into 3-month loans by July 1.
• Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in the Apr S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index which had its biggest year-over-year gain in 3-1/2 years (+0.4% m/m and +3.8% y/y versus expectations of -0.15% m/m and +3.4% y/y), (2) comments from President Obama who said after meeting with Fed Chairman Bernanke that he and the Fed Chairman both agree that the US economy is strengthening "into recovery," and (3) the plunge in the 10-year T-note yield to a 14-month low of 2.95%.
• Citigroup (C) rose 2.1% and Bank of America (BAC) climbed 1.5% in pre-market trading on carry-over support from a rally in European bank stocks on weaker-than-expected demand for ECB funds.
• Peabody Energy (BTU) increased 1.3% in pre-market trading after Deutsche Bank AG raised its recommendation on the stock to "buy" from "hold."

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Overnight Developments

• Global stocks are mostly lower with the European Euro Stoxx 50 Index down -0.41% although Sep S&Ps are slightly higher by +0.50 points. The markets are worried that the weekend G20 meeting in Toronto will expose the rift on austerity versus stimulus that currently exists within the G20 and that G20 leaders will be unable to project a unified message. European stocks are being hurt by the fact that Greek 5-year credit default swap prices today reached a new record high of 1115 bp as the market increasingly worries about a possible Greek debt default. European officials today in Brussels are discussing the details of exactly when to disclose the results of the stress tests on 25 top cross-border European banks and on whether to go further and conduct stress tests on domestic national banks to determine the exact state of the European banking system. The EU last week said it would disclose the results of the stress tests some time in July. US Congressional nego tiators working through the night approved a compromise on US financial regulation, one provision of which will require US banks to move their swaps trading desks into subsidiaries. Both the House and Senate now need to approve the deal, which they propose to have on President Obama’s desk for signature by July 4.
• A storm is gathering in the Caribbean that could turn into a tropical storm or even a hurricane by the end of this weekend or by early next week and that has a chance of moving northward towards oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico. BP’s stock is down 7% this morning on the possibility the storm will disrupt the effort to halt and clean up the BP oil spill.
• The Asian markets today closed mostly lower on concerns about stronger Asian currencies and higher interest rates following this week’s surprise Taiwan rate hike: Japan -.92%, Hong Kong -0.21%, China -0.77%, Taiwan -1.52%, Australia -1.49%, Singapore +0.14%, South Korea -0.80%, and Bombay -0.88%.

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Overnight Developments

• Global stocks are mostly higher with the European Euro Stoxx 50 Index up +0.57% and June S&Ps up +12.20 points. The dollar and Treasuries are weaker and commodity prices rose after economic reports from Asia show accelerating growth. China’s exports in May jumped by the most in 6 years, while Q1 Japan GDP was unexpectedly revised higher. Daimler AG climbed 4% after forecasting Mercedes-Benz sales will advance at twice the rate of the overall market on demand from China, while Lafarge SA, the world’s biggest cement maker, gained 4.3% after Citigroup recommended buying the shares. Overnight deposits at the ECB rose to a record 369 billion euros ($444 billion) today, the most since the start of the euro currency in 1999, as an increase in counterparty risks prompts European banks to deposit their excess funds with the ECB’s overnight deposit facility rather than lend. As expected, the Bank of England maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.50% and held its asset purchase target at 200 billion pounds.
• The Asian markets today closed mostly higher with Japan up +1.10%, Hong Kong +0.06%, China -1.15%, Taiwan +1.56%, Australia +1.14%, Singapore +1.23%, South Korea +0.22%, India +1.59%. Japanese stocks closed higher after Japan’s Q1 GDP was unexpectedly revised up to a 5.0% annualized rate from 4.9%, driven by exports and an upward revision to consumer spending (+0.4% q/q from the previously reported +0.3% q/q). In a separate report, May Japan CGPI rose +0.4% y/y, the first increase in producer prices in 17 months, which may ease deflation concerns as an increase in raw-material costs fueled price gains. Aussie stocks closed higher after Australia’s jobless rate declined -0.2 to a 16-month low of 5.2% in May when employers added 26,900 to payrolls, more than market expectations of 20,000. China’s May exports rose +48.5% y/y, the biggest gain in more than six years, which indicates the European debt crisis has yet to slow the world’s fastest-growing major economy. Desp ite the strong export figure, China’s Shanghai Stock Index closed lower after China’s property prices jumped +12.4% y/y in May, the second-fastest pace on record, which raises concern the government will step up tightening measures to cool the property market.

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Overnight Developments

• Global stocks are mixed with the European Euro Stoxx 50 Index up +0.56% and June S&Ps up +3.20 points. The dollar and Treasuries are weaker after comments last night from Kansas City Fed President Hoenig who said that the US economy is in a sustained recovery, and he repeated his call to raise the Fed funds rate to 1.00% by the end of Sep. Hoenig warned that "monetary policy can cause asset-price bubbles and that we need to take out the excess stimulus." He also said that the US has a "very serious fiscal situation" and that "we need to pass a law that is very firm that says you cannot spend more unless you cut something else." European technology stocks are leading a slight rally in equities today led by a 2.3% gain in STMicroelectronics which rallied after it was rated a "buy" in new coverage at Jeffries Group. IMF Deputy Managing Director Shinohara said most advanced economies are experiencing a "subdued" recovery and risks to the global economic outlook have "risen significantly" and policy makers have limited room to provide support to growth. European banks still remain wary of counterparty risk as they refuse to lend and rather deposit their excess funds with the ECB. Banks lodged 364.6 billion euros ($436 billion) in the ECB’s overnight deposit facility yesterday, the most since the euro’s inception in 1999, with deposits close to or above 300 billion euros for the past 9 sessions.
• The Asian markets today closed mixed with Japan down -1.04%, Hong Kong +0.69%, China +3.07%, Taiwan -1.12%, Australia +0.09%, Singapore -0.03%, South Korea -0.38%, India +0.25%. China’s Shanghai Stock Index closed higher after Reuters reported a surge in the nation’s exports and higher-than-expected new loans in May, signaling Europe’s debt crisis hasn’t derailed the economy. Chinese banks and property developers gained as new loans in May totaled 630 billion yuan ($92.3 billion), exceeding market expectations by 5%, while exporters rallied after May China exports surged +50% y/y. Tempering the rally in Chinese stocks was the +3.1% y/y increase in May consumer prices, which is above the PBOC’s targeted full-year ceiling of 3.0%, and adds to risks of overheating the economy. Japanese stocks closed lower led by losses in exporters, as the yen neared an 8-year high against the euro, raising concern a stronger yen will hurt the value of repatriated overseas earnings.

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Overnight Developments

• Global stocks are mostly higher with the European Euro Stoxx 50 Index up +1.78% and June S&Ps up +3.80 points. The dollar is little changed, Treasuries are weaker and most commodities are higher on increased economic optimism. European stocks received a boost after the May Euro-Zone PMI composite was unexpectedly revised up to 56.4 from the originally reported 56.2. Automakers gained, led by a 5.5% jump in Peugeot, after Deutsche Bank AG raised its recommendation on Europe’s second-largest carmaker to "buy" from "hold," and Daimler AG rose 2.5% after its Mercedes Benz division reported a 23% gain in US sales in May. Air France-KLM Group jumped 4.8% after Europe’s biggest airline said passenger traffic rose 4.3% in May. Limiting stock gains was the unexpected decline in Apr Euro-Zone retail sales which fell -1.2% m/m, the biggest drop in 1-1/2 years and weaker than market expectations for a +0.1% m/m increase. European banks are parking c ash with the ECB amid concern that a 750 billion-euro European rescue package may not be enough to stop the crisis from spreading and spilling into the banking industry. Overnight deposits with the ECB rose to a record 320.4 billion euros ($394 billion) and deposits have exceeded 300 billion euros for the past five days as the sovereign debt crisis makes banks wary of lending to each other.
• The Asian markets today closed mostly higher with Japan up +3.24%, Hong Kong +1.62%, China -0.78%, Taiwan +2.29%, Australia +2.40%, Singapore +2.42%, South Korea +2.14%,India +1.68%. Japanese businesses cut spending for the 12th consecutive quarter after Q1 capital spending excluding software fell -12.9% y/y. The much larger than expected decrease in capital spending will lead the government to downgrade Japan’s Q1 GDP figures later this month. Japanese exporters closed higher as the yen slumped to a 2-week low against the dollar and Asian carmakers gained on increased US sales. Nissan Motor closed 4.8% higher after reporting a +24% y/y increase in US car sales in May, Toyota rose 3.6% after posting a 5.7% sales gain and Kia Motors advanced 3.2% after its US sales rose 21% last month. The South Korean won rose sharply after JPMorgan Chase raised the nation’s equities to "overweight" and said the won is one of the "most undervalued" emerging-marke t currencies.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• June S&Ps this morning are trading up +3.80 points. The US stock market yesterday opened higher and maintained a positive tone throughout the day as it trended higher into the close and finished on its high (Dow Jones +2.25%, S&P 500 +2.58%, Nasdaq Composite +2.64%). Bullish factors included (1) a rally in homebuilders after the stronger-than-expected Apr US pending home sales (+6.0% m/m and +24,6% y/y versus expectations of +5.0% m/m and +21.0% y/y), (2) a rally in energy producers and oil service providers after crude oil rose, (3) strength in airline stocks after Continental airlines beat monthly estimates for monthly unit revenue, which signals a stronger return of business travelers who pay higher fares, and (4) the prediction from MFS Investment Management that "the US is in the middle of a V-shaped economic recovery and that the European bank crisis does not have the scale and scope of Lehman and AIG and it doesn’t have the ingredients to bring down the banking system."
• Bearish factors included (1) the slump in the MBA’s home purchase index to its lowest level since Apr 1997, which indicates future US housing sales may be weak as the expiration of government tax incentives to purchase homes by the end of April has led to a reduction in home sales since then, and (2) carry-over weakness from a slump in European stocks on concern the region’s sovereign debt contagion is spreading after the yield premium between Spanish 10-year government bonds and 10-year German bunds widened to a 13-year high of 177 bp.
• Alcoa (AA) rose 1.6% in European trading after the company was upgraded to "outperform" from "neutral" at Macquarie Group Ltd.
• Las Vegas Sands (LVS) climbed 2.6% in pre-market trading after Morgan Stanley raised its recommendation on the casino company to "overweight" from equal weight."

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