Stocks had mixed results in Asia overnight. The Nikkei was up almost one percent, while Australia and Shanghai were higher by about 0.3%, but the Hang Seng lost a small fraction. European indexes are generally little changed at the moment, with both the Footsie and the Dax up a fraction. US stock futures are up by about one third of a percent.

*The July reading of Japan’s Jobless Rate was down one tenth on the month to 5.2%, a steady reading was the forecast. Overall Household Spending was +1.1% on a year over year basis, up from June but below the estimate of +1.5%.

*The July reading of Japan’s Consumer Price Index, ex-fresh food, is -1.1% on a year over year basis, matching the forecast. The August reading of that same inflation measure for Tokyo is also -1.1% year over year, less deflationary than the expected -1.2%.

*The July reading of Germany’s Import Price Index -0.2% on a month on month basis, a decline of -0.4% was the forecast.

*German states have been releasing the August reading of their Consumer Price Index this morning, some of the results include: Saxony 0.0% month on month and +1.1% year on year, Hesse +0.1% and +0.7%, Bavaria +0.1% and +1.1% and North Rhine Westphalia +0.2% and +1.0%. The national CPI is due out later this morning, it is expected to be +0.1% on a month over month basis and the estimate for the annualized rate is +1.1%.

*The August reading of the KOF Swiss Leading Indicator is 2.18, that is down from 2.22 in July and the second small decline in a row.

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Overnight Developments

• European stocks are little changed with the European DJ Stoxx 50 up +0.03% and Sep S&Ps are up +3.50 points. The market‘s attention is focused on speeches later today from Fed Chairman Bernanke and ECB President Trichet from the Fed’s annual symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Losses in European banks are undercutting European stock prices today with Banca Papolare di Milano down 5% after the Italian bank reported Q2 net income of 20.1 million euros, lower than analysts’ estimates of 41.6 million-euros, and Credit Suisse Group AG predicted that earnings estimates for 2010-12 will likely be revised down by 10 to 15% following the bank’s “very weak set of results.” Commerzbank AG slumped 2.6% after Handelsbatt said the bank plans to sell new shares as early as next month to pave the way for an exit by the German government. Limiting losses in European markets was the upward revision to Q2 UK GDP figures to +1.2% q/q and +1.7% y/y, higher than the initi al estimate of +1.1% q/q and +1.6% y/y, and shows the British economy expanding by its biggest amount since 2001.
• The Asian markets today closed mostly higher with Japan up +0.95%, Hong Kong -0.07%, China +0.30%, Taiwan +0.43%, Australia +0.32%, Singapore +0.44%, South Korea +0.06%, India -1.25%. Japanese stocks closed higher and the yen weakened against the dollar after Japanese Prime Minister Kan said the government is ready to take “bold” action in the currency market to stem the yen’s advance. Kan said he expects the BOJ to implement monetary policy “swiftly,” and that he plans on meeting with BOJ governor Shirakawa soon after he returns from the US. July Japan consumer prices excluding fresh food fell -1.1% y/y, their 17th consecutive monthly decline, while July Japan overall household spending rose +1.1% y/y, lower than expectations for a +1.5% y/y increase, and signals that Japan’s economic recovery may be faltering. On the bright side, Japan added 210,000 jobs in July from a month earlier, the most since Jan, while the unemployment dropped -0.1 to 5.2% , its first decline in 6 months as the job-to-applicant ratio rose to 0.53, meaning there are 53 job openings for every 100 job candidates, the most since March 2009.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• Sep S&Ps this morning are up +3.50 points. The stock market yesterday fluctuated on both sides of unchanged until early afternoon when it ailed off into the close and finsihed just above its low (Dow -0.74%, S&P 500 -0.77%, Nasdaq Composite -1.07%). Bearish factors included (1) renewed concerns over Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis after El Economista reported that a Spanish court ruled Spain’s method of auditing sales tax was illegal and voided 5.1 billion euros ($6.48 billion) in value-added taxes collected in past years, which fuels concern about Spain’s fiscal stability, (2) concerns the US economic recovery is continuing to weaken after the Kansas City Fed said that manufacturing in its area slowed in Aug, with no companies reporting m/m increases, and (3) the prediction from Societe Generale that stocks are headed for their third bear market since 2000 as the global economy contracts and because “there is still too much hope” among investors t o suggest that stock prices will hit bottom any time soon.
• Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in weekly initial unemployment claims (-31,000 to 473,000 versus expectations of -10,000 to 490,000), (2) strength in raw materials and energy producers after a weak dollar prompted an advance in the prices of most commodities, and (3) the prediction from Kansas City Fed President Hoenig who said that he still expects the US economy to expand by about 3% this year, in line with his forecast from a month ago.
• J. Crew Group (JCG) fell 6.5% in pre-market trading after the clothing retailer cut its full-year earnings forecast to $2.35 a share at most, lower than a previous forecast of as much as $2.45.
• Omnivision Technologies (OVTI) dropped 4.1% in pre-market trading after the company reported Q1 sales of $193.1 million, below analysts’ extimates of $204.1 million.

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Stocks were down across most of Asia. The Nikkei fell by 1.6% and Australia was lower by two thirds of a percent, but the Hang Seng and Shanghai lost only 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. European indexes are also lower, with the Footsie and Dax currently off by about a half percent. US stock futures are lower by a third to a half percent.

*The June reading of Japan’s Jobless Rate was up one tenth on the month to 5.3%; it was expected to remain steady at 5.2%. Also, Overall Household Spending however rose 0.5% in June from a year ago, it had been forecast to fall 0.9%.

*The June reading of Japan’s Consumer Price Index, ex-fresh food, was -1.0% on a year over year basis, two tenth less deflation than in May. The July reading of that same CPI measure for Tokyo was steady at -1.3%, a one tenth decline was the estimate.

*The preliminary June reading of Japan’s Industrial Production was surprisingly weak at -1.5% on a month on month basis; the forecast was for +0.2%.

*The June reading of German Retail Sales fell 0.9% on the month, much lower than the expected decline of 0.2%, however the previous monthly change was revised up to +3.0% from +0.4%.

*The July reading of Switzerland’s Leading Economic Indicator was steady at 2.23, a bit short of the forecast.

*St. Louis Fed boss Bullard is on CNBC reiterating the basis of his recent paper that deflation is one possible outcome for the economy and that the Fed would take other action, like more quantitative easing, if the economy weakens.

*The first look at Q2 GDP is due out at 7:30am CDT. Growth is forecast to be +2.6% on a quarter on quarter annualized basis; it was +2.7% in the first quarter. The Q2 reading of the key consumption for Personal Consumption is expected to be +2.4% and the estimate for the Q2 GDP Price Deflator is +1.1%. The Q2 reading of the Core PCE price measure is expected to be +1.0% on a quarter over quarter annualized basis. Also due out at 7:30am is the Q2 reading of the Employment Cost Index, it is forecast to be +0.5%. The July reading of the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index is set to be released at 8:45am CDT, but it will be out three minutes earlier for subscribers; the Chicago Index is expected to fall three points on the month to 56.0. The final July reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan is due out at 8:55am CDT; it is expected to be a half point higher than the preliminary result at 67.0, it was 76.0 in June.

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