It seems there is a chorus of marketers hawking a variety of Forex and e-mini day trading programs on the Internet. There are promises of fast cash, 1000% returns, and guaranteed methods of trading. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Learning to trade is a skill, much like the skill set required for any job. This skill set is not acquired instantly from reading an e-book or buying a trading course. This is not to say that buying a trading course is a bad idea, in fact, it’s a great idea. But to trade effectively you need to give yourself some time to learn trading methodology, market psychology and acclimate yourself to the trading environment.

I encourage everyone to learn e-mini day trading, but I caution against running headlong into the market place with expectations that are not realistic. The first few months of trading can be disastrous without proper preparation and experience.

1. Most Novice Traders Tend to over Trade.

When considering an e-mini day trading opportunity it is important to weigh a number of factors and assess the probability of the trade being successful. Relying on rote oscillator signals or similar rate of change indicators without fully assessing the price action in the e-mini contract being traded is the recipe for failure. It is important to firmly understand the current trend in the market and the size of your e-mini futures account before entering any trade.

I regularly see new traders taking 10 to 15 trades a day. Rarely are there are this many trading opportunities during a trading session. Experience has taught me that there are 5 to 8 good trading setups each day, sometimes less.  Why do novice traders tend to over trade?

A typical reason for over trading is “chasing the market.” New traders tend to pile into trades late, usually just-in-time for the directional movement of the market to change. There are a variety of reasons new traders tend to chase the market, for the most common reason for this phenomenon is taking every single trade indicated by an oscillator or indicator. It is important to use a multi-threaded system to filter your trades in a manner that eliminates some of lower probability trades. Trade filtering is one of the most important components of any trading system. Some trading systems use trending markets and agreement between several indicators to indicate a trade. There are many filtering systems on the market and all good trading programs filter trades in some manner.

2. Most Novice Traders Tend to Trade to Many Contracts

Money management in your e-mini futures trading account is the skill that will enable traders to remain in the market for an extended period of time. On the other hand, trading the maximum number of contracts your account is authorized to trade (by the brokerage margin department) is a mistake.

A good rule of thumb for sizing the number of contracts in a potential trade is to never trade more than 5% of your e-mini trading account balance. For many smaller accounts, this will mean trading only one contract. Emotionally, trading a mere one contract is a difficult task, especially when the new trader has purchased a program that has conditioned his or her thinking to get-rich-quick. Because the margin department has authorized you to trade up to 5 contracts doesn’t mean it’s a good idea to do so.

Why?

Should you go on a run of losing trades, save 4 in a row, you can easily lose 60 to 70% of your e-mini trading account balance. Needless to say, this is a less than desirable outcome. In my opinion, most traders trade to many contracts because they have been conditioned to believe their trading system is infallible and all they need to do is follow the system and riches will come pouring their way. As I said earlier, 5 to 7% of your account balance is the maximum you should risk on any given trade.

3. Most Traders Are Not Familiar with the Psychological Factors in Trading.

I like for my first trade to be successful because it puts me in the right frame of mind. Of course, there are days when you might be stopped out on your first trade and find yourself with a significant negative profit/loss position. At this point, it is not unusual for novice traders to over trade or trade too many contracts in order to catch up.

Regardless of the day’s prior trades, is essential to maintain your trading methodology and money management system. There is always a temptation when you are having a losing day to up the number of contracts in an effort to regain your footing in positive territory. This is always a bad idea. Traders also tend to increase their risk tolerance by initiating lower probability trades when they are having a losing day.

It is essential to trade your account, not let your account trade you. It is entirely possible to salvage a day after an initial losing trade. To be sure, you are more likely to produce positive results when you stay true to your system. Negative account balances for a trading session are notorious for compounding problems. You can easily turn a modest loss and to disaster by trading outside the parameters of your e-mini day trading system.

In summary, we have discussed the importance of staying true to your system and not letting outside factors put you in the market before you are ready; over trading, poor money management, and unfamiliar psychological feelings all contribute to trader failure. In short, be fully prepared to trade before you begin trading in earnest; there is no need to rush into e-mini day trading before you are ready.

- About the Author: Click here for free nightly videos analyzing the day’s trading action (a $297 value). Article Source

Good afternoon,

last Friday, the position in we held in Woodside Petroleum was re-purchased at $42.78 for our Managed Accounts. The rational behind this particular investment is the same as when it was first transacted on two months ago. WPL has a rising production profile and the price of crude oil and natural gas is expected to rise over the long term so the base fundamentals of WPL are very solid.

Although the market is down 60 points this morning, the portfolio is mostly protected by the put options we hold and the Australian market is holding up extremely well considering the larger fall in the US and Europe.

The rationale behind an additional purchase follows two lines:

Firstly, we had been holding only 35% stock, and this is a little underweight on our overall strategy of being overweight stock after market selloffs. This is particularly so given the fact that the recent purchase of index put options further reduced this exposure. We purchased WPL in part because it is cheap and represents excellent value, but also in part to ensure we will make money if the current selloff does not continue.

If the market does continue to fall, we will make money on the put options, meanwhile the stock that we do hold will lose value. The loss of value will be offset by the fact that we still hold around 45% of the portfolio in cash, and so once the put options have made a profit, we can use it in addition to the significant cash holding to purchase much cheaper stock.

We have our eyes on names such as BHP around $36.00, and WOW near $25.50.

We would like to briefly touch on the topic of market psychology here once again. Most investors (our clients being no exception) tend to worry more about the economy and financial markets the further that the market falls. When markets bottom, people’s concerns are the worst, but of course this is when absolute risk is lowest because markets can only fall so far. News articles are at their most fearful, but not because things will continue to be bad but because reporters reflect markets, not forecast them.

At the current time we are continuing to weigh up the risks to financial markets. We are protected out to December against a serious collapse in the Australian index through index put options and can of course add to this position should research back that decision up.

After this purchase, we will remain very cautious on the remainder of the available cash, and once again should we see further substantial falls in the market look to make a profit on the options while scouring the market for opportunities.

- About the Author: William Shaw is a boutique investment manager which specialises in offering Managed Accounts to private individuals, Self Managed Super Funds and financial planners in Australia. Our Managed Accounts service has outperformed the ASX 200 by 23.32%. For more information about our managed share investment service and about our high conviction active investment methodology, visit Managed Funds Article Source

Factors That Influence Forex Market Trends

The Foreign Exchange or Forex is the largest market today for stock trading, and it is continually growing with more and more people investing in it. However, as promising as this market may be when it comes to profit, like any other trade it can be very volatile as well.

It is therefore important to be familiar with certain factors that influence trends in the Forex market if you are decided in joining this arena. After all, acquainting yourself with the many scenarios that can cause currencies to go up or down can help you a lot in making decisions for when to buy or sell.

There are basically three major factors that affect the Foreign Exchange –a country’s economy, political conditions and market psychology.

Economy

Economic factors are the most basic things that create changes in a country’s currency. When such economic conditions as a budget deficit or surplus is present within a country, there will surely be reactions in the market and values will be reflected on currencies. Other conditions may also include inflation trends, and the general economic growth of the country.

The more prosperous a country’s economy is, the more investors will be able to adhere to doing trade in a more positive attitude. Such indicators as a growth in a nation’s gross domestic product (GDP), employment levels and retail sales among others will basically attract more investors and that nation’s currency value will likely go up.

Political Conditions

Another very important factor that influence trends in Forex, are the conditions of a country’s political sector. This is because political instability or turmoil can generally create negative fluctuations to an economy. But if such instances occur wherein a country may rise above political obstacles, the opposite may occur and the economy may improve.

Events in a region can surely create negative or positive interest among investors for a nation’s currency. And so, such conditions surely influence the trends for demands and prices of a certain currency.

Market Psychology

Of course, the perception of traders and investors will greatly influence the Foreign Exchange market in so many ways. After all, the market is highly dependent on whether or not people would want to invest on a country’s economy in order to determine whether currency prices will go up or down.

For example, such conditions wherein unsettling international events may happen, then under the “flight of quality” rule, people would generally want to look for a safe haven for their investments. Whenever there is a greater demand for a certain country’s economy, then a higher price will be given to buyers and the currency’s value will go up and become stronger.

Other events that contribute to traders’ perceptions may be long-term trends where people invest based on what they have seen for a long period and time, and even economic numbers where people may base their investments depending on what numbers show a greater value.

The market in Foreign Exchange is often unpredictable and fluctuating. Therefore if you are interested in doing trades in this market, make sure that you take the time to be knowledgeable about good strategies that can help you play the game.

But more importantly, keep in updating yourself with the different economic trends in the international scene. After all, this currency market would greatly revolve upon events that would occur in the different countries. Familiarizing yourself with the factors that affect the Forex will surely help you make better decisions.