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S&P 500

Deflation risk is influencing the markets as lower money supply and credit are affecting both the producer prices and manufacturing sectors. Lower food prices affected the producer price index which is a leading indicator affecting consumer prices. Overall this translates into low interest rates and could be good for profits if money supply and credit is available for growth.

However lower numbers in the manufacturing sector translated into a slowdown in growth. This has been indicated by the lower Empire State and Philly Fed numbers as well as the Industrial Production report. If these manufacturing reports announced higher numbers and PPI was low then we could have a positive and sustained growth. But lower numbers in manufacturing and a lower PPI makes a case for deflation risk.

The S&P 500 opened up lower breaking Wednesday’s previous low before rallying at the end of the day. Looking at the 5 minute chart we are in a trading range making three attempts flirting with the 1100 level on the S&P 500.

On the daily chart of the S&P 500 we are trading between the cushion area of 144 and 200 day moving averages as traders and investors are cautious looking ahead especially with the upcoming mid-term elections, uncertainty with European debt, and the current Gulf Oil Spill.

The Market Volatility Index (VIX) has been active due to the seasonal selling trend of the ‘Sell in May’ philosophy however seems to stabilizing after the Fourth of July weekend and the anticipation of second quarter 2010 earnings season. Currently the VIX is at the 144 and 200 day moving averages indicating a steady cautiousness between traders and investors.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Market Volatility Index measures options activity within the market and is widely used tracking the S&P 500. A common trading strategy for traders and investors includes a VIX level of 30 or above means an immediate switch from equities to cash. Traders and investors are retreating from the markets and finding safety and protection within the Treasuries, gold, and the dollar.

Summary of Major S&P Pivot Levels

1219: S&P 500 52 Week High

Technical Levels Natural Support and Resistance

1125: January 2010 Resistance Level

1100: Natural Support Level

1075: Natural Support Level

Technical Levels 5 Minute Chart

1089: 144 Day Fibonacci Moving Average on 5 Minute Chart

1188: 200 Day Moving Average on 5 Minute Chart

Technical Levels Daily Minute Chart

1102: 144 Day Fibonacci Moving Average on Daily Chart

1087: 200 Day Moving Average on Daily Chart

Daily Economic Calendar

Consumer Price Index / 8.30 AM EST

Consumer Sentiment / 9.55 AM EST

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Overnight Developments

• Global stocks are mostly higher with the European Euro Stoxx 50 Index up +0.57% and June S&Ps up +12.20 points. The dollar and Treasuries are weaker and commodity prices rose after economic reports from Asia show accelerating growth. China’s exports in May jumped by the most in 6 years, while Q1 Japan GDP was unexpectedly revised higher. Daimler AG climbed 4% after forecasting Mercedes-Benz sales will advance at twice the rate of the overall market on demand from China, while Lafarge SA, the world’s biggest cement maker, gained 4.3% after Citigroup recommended buying the shares. Overnight deposits at the ECB rose to a record 369 billion euros ($444 billion) today, the most since the start of the euro currency in 1999, as an increase in counterparty risks prompts European banks to deposit their excess funds with the ECB’s overnight deposit facility rather than lend. As expected, the Bank of England maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.50% and held its asset purchase target at 200 billion pounds.
• The Asian markets today closed mostly higher with Japan up +1.10%, Hong Kong +0.06%, China -1.15%, Taiwan +1.56%, Australia +1.14%, Singapore +1.23%, South Korea +0.22%, India +1.59%. Japanese stocks closed higher after Japan’s Q1 GDP was unexpectedly revised up to a 5.0% annualized rate from 4.9%, driven by exports and an upward revision to consumer spending (+0.4% q/q from the previously reported +0.3% q/q). In a separate report, May Japan CGPI rose +0.4% y/y, the first increase in producer prices in 17 months, which may ease deflation concerns as an increase in raw-material costs fueled price gains. Aussie stocks closed higher after Australia’s jobless rate declined -0.2 to a 16-month low of 5.2% in May when employers added 26,900 to payrolls, more than market expectations of 20,000. China’s May exports rose +48.5% y/y, the biggest gain in more than six years, which indicates the European debt crisis has yet to slow the world’s fastest-growing major economy. Desp ite the strong export figure, China’s Shanghai Stock Index closed lower after China’s property prices jumped +12.4% y/y in May, the second-fastest pace on record, which raises concern the government will step up tightening measures to cool the property market.

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