*Stocks in Asia were broadly higher. The Nikkei led the way with a gain of one and a half percent, the Hang Seng was up 0.4% and Shanghai added a quarter percent, but Australia was a rare exception with a decline of a half percent. European indexes are generally a bit lower. The Dax is currently down by a third of a percent and the Footsie is essentially unchanged. US stock futures are fractionally higher as I write.

*The final revision of Japan’s Q2 GDP showed that their economy grew faster than previously thought. The annualized rate of growth in the second quarter is now said to be +1.5%, well above the +0.4% growth rate initially reported.

*China reports that in August they had their third straight trade surplus in excess of $20 billion, but at $20.3 billion it was almost seven billion less than forecast. In August China’s Exports were up 34.4% on a year over year basis, close to the expectation but their Imports were up 35.2% versus last year and that was about eight percent more than forecast.

*For some reason China is releasing several economic statistics on Saturday, among the data due out tomorrow are: PPI, CPI, Retail Sales and Industrial Production.

*The August reading of the UK Producer Price Index was unchanged on a monthly basis and the annualized cost of goods at the factory gate was 4.7%, the slowest year on year rate in six months.

*The July reading of Wholesale Inventories is due out at 9:00am CDT, it is expected to increase 0.4% on a monthly basis.

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Overnight Developments

• European stocks are stronger with the European DJ Stoxx 50 up +0.37% and Sep S&Ps are up +7.00 points. The dollar index and Treasuries are weaker while most commodities are higher, even after German investor confidence dropped to a 16-month low. The Aug German ZEW economic sentiment survey fell a more-than-expected -7.2 to 14.0, its fourth straight decline and its lowest level in 16 months, which suggests a weaker growth outlook going forward. In the UK, July consumer prices rose +3.1% y/y, which is above the government’s 3.0% limit and forced BOE Governor King to write his third public letter this year to explain how he will bring prices under control. European stocks received a boost after Carlsberg, the biggest brewer in Russia, climbed 2.1% after it reported Q2 profit of 2.63 billion kroner, beating analysts’ estimates of 2.05 billion-kroner and after the company raised its full-year profit forecast due to the effect of a stronger ruble and an improvement in the Russian market. Weinerberger surged 7.2% after the world’s largest brickmaker reported Q2 net income of 20.6 million euros ($26 million), compared with a 151.5 million euro loss the year before after the company cut costs and the building material market began to recover.
• The Asian markets today closed mixed with Japan down -0.38%, Hong Kong +0.12%, China +0.69%, Taiwan -0.13%, Australia +0.87%, Singapore -0.35%, South Korea +0.64%, India -0.01%. Japanese bank stocks fell and helped to lead the overall market lower after Deutsche Bank downgraded the industry to "marketweight" from "overweight," citing "a lack of confidence that the strong Q1 performance will continue in subsequent quarters." A report from the Nikkei newspaper said that the Japanese government might extend the eco-point incentive program for purchases of energy-saving devices in an attempt to extend the economic recovery after Monday’s release of Japan Q2 GDP data showed the Japanese economy barely grew last quarter. The central banks of Australia and South Korea said the world economic outlook has become clouded, which may slow their pace of future interest rate increases. The minutes of the Aug 3 RBA policy meeting released today said th ere is "more uncertainty over the global outlook than there had been earlier in the year," while BOK Governor Kim Choong Soo said in a speech today that markets "may prove turbulent in the future."

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• Sep S&Ps this morning are up +7.00 points. The stock market yesterday erased early losses and finished the day mixed (Dow -0.01%, S&P 500 +0.01%, Nasdaq Composite +0.39%). The S&P 500, the Dow and the Nasdaq all fell to 3-week lows but recovered to finish mixed to higher. Bullish factors included (1) strength in raw materials and commodity producers after the dollar fell and boosted most commodities along Goldman Sachs’s reiteration of its "overweight" rating on commodities, and (2) the plunge in the yield on the 10-year T-note to a 17-month low of 2.57%, which should benefit consumers and businesses.
• Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from a fall in Japanese and European stocks on concern the global economic recovery is faltering after Q2 Japan GDP came in weaker-than-expected (+0.4% annualized versus expectations of +2.3% annualized), (2) the weaker-than-expected Aug Empire manufacturing index (+2.0 to 7.1 versus expectations of +3.2 to 8.3), (3) a slump in homebuilders after the unexpected decline in the Aug NAHB housing market index to a 17-month low (-1 to 13 versus expectations of +1 to 15), and (4) the decline in most education stocks after data from the US Department of Education signaled that for-profit college aid may be imperiled because loan payback rates are insufficient.
• Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT) surged 13% in pre-market trading after the world’s largest fertilizer producer rejected an unsolicited takeover proposal from BHP Billiton worth $130 a share in cash.

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Stocks were down across most of Asia. The Nikkei fell by 1.6% and Australia was lower by two thirds of a percent, but the Hang Seng and Shanghai lost only 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. European indexes are also lower, with the Footsie and Dax currently off by about a half percent. US stock futures are lower by a third to a half percent.

*The June reading of Japan’s Jobless Rate was up one tenth on the month to 5.3%; it was expected to remain steady at 5.2%. Also, Overall Household Spending however rose 0.5% in June from a year ago, it had been forecast to fall 0.9%.

*The June reading of Japan’s Consumer Price Index, ex-fresh food, was -1.0% on a year over year basis, two tenth less deflation than in May. The July reading of that same CPI measure for Tokyo was steady at -1.3%, a one tenth decline was the estimate.

*The preliminary June reading of Japan’s Industrial Production was surprisingly weak at -1.5% on a month on month basis; the forecast was for +0.2%.

*The June reading of German Retail Sales fell 0.9% on the month, much lower than the expected decline of 0.2%, however the previous monthly change was revised up to +3.0% from +0.4%.

*The July reading of Switzerland’s Leading Economic Indicator was steady at 2.23, a bit short of the forecast.

*St. Louis Fed boss Bullard is on CNBC reiterating the basis of his recent paper that deflation is one possible outcome for the economy and that the Fed would take other action, like more quantitative easing, if the economy weakens.

*The first look at Q2 GDP is due out at 7:30am CDT. Growth is forecast to be +2.6% on a quarter on quarter annualized basis; it was +2.7% in the first quarter. The Q2 reading of the key consumption for Personal Consumption is expected to be +2.4% and the estimate for the Q2 GDP Price Deflator is +1.1%. The Q2 reading of the Core PCE price measure is expected to be +1.0% on a quarter over quarter annualized basis. Also due out at 7:30am is the Q2 reading of the Employment Cost Index, it is forecast to be +0.5%. The July reading of the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index is set to be released at 8:45am CDT, but it will be out three minutes earlier for subscribers; the Chicago Index is expected to fall three points on the month to 56.0. The final July reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan is due out at 8:55am CDT; it is expected to be a half point higher than the preliminary result at 67.0, it was 76.0 in June.

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Overnight Developments

• European stocks are trading mildly lower with the European Stoxx 50 down -0.28%. Sep S&Ps are down 4.80 points (-0.44%). S&Ps are on edge ahead of this morning’s Q2 GDP report (expected +2.6%). There is also some caution ahead of Sunday’s expected release of China’s purchasing managers index due to talk of a sharply weaker figure. The market consensus is for a moderate 0.7 point decline to 51.4 from 52.1 in June. The Eurozone July CPI rose to a 20-month high of +1.7% y/y from +1.4% y/y in June, which was in line with market expectations. However, the core CPI rose to only +0.9% y/y from +0.8% y/y in June. Meanwhile, the Eurozone June unmeployment rate remained at 10%, the highest level in almost 12 years. The IMF said today that US banks may need as much as $76 billion more in capital. A senior executive from Moody’s said that Spain, already on review for a possible downgrade, will probably lose its Aaa rating. Spain has already lost its triple-A ra ting from S&P and Fitch. The Moody’s executive also said that the U.S. needs a "clear plan" for tackling its deficit.
• The Asian markets today closed lower across the board: Japan -1.64%, Hong Kong -0.30%, China -0.32%, Taiwan -0.49%, Australia -0.68%, Singapore -0.33%, South Korea -0.83%, Bombay -0.69%. Asian markets were undercut by the report that Japan’s June unemployment rate rose to a 7-month high of 5.3%, which was higher than the consensus of 5.2%. In addition, Japan’s factory output fell 1.5% m/m versus the consensus for a +0.2% rise.

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