Stocks fluctuated Friday after a mixed batch of readings on consumer spending contributed to a muddled picture of the economy. The major stock indexes moved in a narrow band, alternately rising and falling in very light trading. Many traders were away on vacation, and those who were working had little reason to make any major moves because of economic data that remains confusing.

The Commerce Department said that retail sales rose 0.4 percent in July. That was an improvement after two months of sales declines. But the number was just below economists’ forecast of a gain of 0.5 percent. The report did show strength in auto sales, but it also showed that consumers are shying away from other purchases. Some better news came from the University of Michigan/Reuters survey of consumer sentiment for the first part of August, which showed consumers are slightly more optimistic. An index based on the survey came in at 69.6, slightly above analysts’ estimates and up from July’s 67.8.

Earlier Friday, retailer J.C. Penney Co. lowered its earnings forecast for the year, citing expectations that consumer spending will be slow. J.C. Penney joined competitor Kohl’s Corp., which lowered its earnings outlook on Thursday.

These latest reports fell in line with a long string of conflicting data that has left investors unsure about where the economy is headed. Consumer spending has remained weak along with the labor market. And there are no signs that employers are ready to start hiring at a pace to help lift the economy. On Thursday, the Labor Department said the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time rose last week. Although J.C. Penney and Kohl’s had disappointments for investors, second-quarter earnings overall have been strong and company executives are optimistic. The split between economic and earnings numbers has added to investors’ murky view of the economy.

That uncertainty has led to heavy selling this week. The Dow Jones industrial average has lost 380 points over the past three days. But the big drop may also have lured some buyers back into the market Friday. “Maybe it’s getting ready to be bought again,” Philip S. Dow, director of equity strategy at RBC Wealth Management in Minneapolis, said of the market. He noted that the market‘s recent declines have made stocks more attractive. Still, that doesn’t mean analysts are looking for the market to rally. “We’re in a fragile market,” said Steven Goldman, chief market strategist, Weeden & Co. in Greenwich, Conn. He noted that the market‘s decline is feeding the lack of confidence among consumers and investors. That inevitably has an impact on the economy.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 22.29, or 0.2 percent, at 10,342.32. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 0.43, or 0.04 percent, to 1,084.04. The Nasdaq composite index fell 4.28, or 0.2 percent, to 2,185.99. Rising stocks were ahead of losers by 4 to 3 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to a light 445 million shares.

For more information visit http://www.worldmarketmedia.com/779/section.aspx/2230/post/traders-head-out-early-friday

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S&P 500

The market struggled to find direction amidst uncertainty weighing on Europe and second quarter 2010 earnings season. Many traders and investors took profits in the morning before the S&P continued its trend just above Friday’s previous high.

Before the second quarter earnings season started the S&P 500 rallied just below the 200 day moving average on the daily chart of 1086. The results of the second quarter earnings could push the market higher if the numbers are better than expected. However any market leader having a bad second quarter could push an industry sector lower while another sector leader rise higher.

For example Walmart could lead the retails sector higher if second quarter earnings are better than expected and the outlook remains positive. However technology giant Apple may suffer lower second quarter earnings and push the other tech stocks lower.

The Market Volatility Index has been active due to the seasonal selling trend of the ‘Sell in May’ philosophy. If the index is above 30 then traders and investors are switching from riskier assets to cash. Lower than 30 especially breaking through the two major moving averages of 144 and 200 means that people are buying riskier assets and financial instruments.  The Market Volatility Index seems to stabilizing after the fourth of July weekend and the anticipation of second quarter 2010 earnings season.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Market Volatility Index (VIX) measures options activity within the market and is widely used tracking the S&P 500. A common trading strategy for traders and investors includes a VIX level of 30 or above means an immediate switch from equities to cash. Traders and investors are retreating from the markets and finding safety and protection within the Treasuries, gold, and the dollar.

Summary of Major S&P Pivot Levels

1219: S&P 500 52 Week High

Technical Levels Natural Support and Resistance

1125: January 2010 Resistance Level

1100: Natural Support Level

1075: Natural Support Level

Technical Levels 5 Minute Chart

1073: 144 Day Fibonacci Moving Average on 5 Minute Chart

1171: 200 Day Moving Average on 5 Minute Chart

Technical Levels Daily Minute Chart

1102: 144 Day Fibonacci Moving Average on Daily Chart

1086: 200 Day Moving Average on Daily Chart

Daily Economic Calendar

International Trade / 8.30 AM EST

Treasury Budget / 2.00 PM EST

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